Conflict in the Horn of Africa, the Turkey factor, and why it matters for Greece
This week we’re turning our attention to the Horn of Africa, where a long-simmering conflict in Ethiopia recently exploded into open war. The situation is grim, but it’s not limited to Africa’s second most populous nation. Eritrea has been pulled into the conflict, Sudan’s civil war is right next door, and on the other side of the Red Sea the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen continue to strike the Saudis.
Making an already complicated situation even worse, a number of regional powers, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and Israel are all vying for influence in the region, linking the Horn of Africa with the wider Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. We’ve already seen rivalries between these countries manifest in proxy struggles.
One rivalry to watch is between Israel and Turkey. We’ve seen Turkey invest heavily in the region, especially in Somalia, where Turkey has deployed F-16s and advanced drones, and trains Somali troops at Camp TUKRSOM, its largest overseas military base. Meanwhile, Somaliland – which broke away from Somalia and is only recognised by Israel – is urgently seeking Israeli military support.
Turkey’s actions aren’t limited to Somalia. Turkey’s rapid expansion in Africa is part of a highly calculated, decades-long multi-pronged approach that has seen it strike up bilateral relationships with scores of African states with deals ranging from educational programs to natural resources, military assistance, and arms sales.
As the Horn of Africa draws in regional powers, the question that arises is what does this mean for Greece? So far, Greece has stationed Patriot missiles in Saudi Arabia, defending it against threats that include the Houthis, and is playing an active role in the Red Sea through the EU’s naval mission ASPIDES to protect international shipping. Given how developments in the region are increasingly part of a wider arc of conflict spanning from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Horn of Africa, this is a region Greece can not afford to ignore.
Ambassador Michelle Gavin, Sinan Ciddi, and Professor Asteris Huliaras join Thanos Davelis this week as we look at the conflicts in the Horn of Africa, and break down why they matter for Greece.
A little more info on our guests:
Ambassador Michelle Gavin is the Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow at FDD and director of its Turkey program.
Asteris Huliaras is a professor of comparative politics and international relations at the University of the Peloponnese where he holds a Jean Monnet Chair on EU Relations with Less Developed Countries.
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